BANGKOK, Thailand — While visiting Bangkok in 2003, then-President George W. Bush designated Thailand a “non-NATO treaty ally” and congratulated Thaksin Shinawatra, the popular civilian prime minister in a country long led by military-dominated governments.
Three years later, a desperate, panicking Mr.Thaksin secretly alerted Mr. Bush about “a threat to democracy in Thailand” by “extra-constitutional tactics,” just before a 2006 military coup toppled him and left him fleeing the country ahead of a slew of corruption allegations.
And now the long, strange trip of Thailand’s most enigmatic and polarizing political figure got a little longer and stranger after a whirlwind week that could reshape the political landscape here after nearly a decade of stultifying military rule.
In the space of just five days as a new civilian-led coalition government struggles to launch, the billionaire Mr. Thaksin, 74, last week voluntarily ended 15 years of self-imposed exile; was promptly jailed for a longstanding eight-year sentence for financial corruption; was moved to a hospital a day later complaining of ill health; appealed to King Maha Vajiralongkorn for judicial leniency, and — as of the end of the week, at least — saw his sentence reduced to just a year, with the possibility to apply for parole in just three months.
“Thai-style democracy” is tricky, opaque and imaginative, but many here are reading the week’s bewildering series of events as a kind of symbolic closure on the political schism that has hung over the country since the 2006 putsch that drove Mr. Thaksin from power and soon from the country.
Hours after Mr. Thaksin returned home and was arrested last week, Parliament ended a three-month standoff and elected Mr. Thaksin’s Pheu Thai Party ally, the politically inexperienced real estate tycoon, Srettha Thavisin, 60, as prime minister.
In one sign of a possible truce in the country’s endemic power battles, Mr. Srettha was able to secure his prime ministry only by agreeing to include in his 11-party coalition two political parties — United Thai and Palang Pracharath — led by military figures, including the outgoing prime minister and defense minister, key collaborators in the 2014 coup and the military-dominated government that came to power.
Mr. Srettha officially takes power when his already squabbling Cabinet choices are unveiled for King Vajiralongkorn to endorse, expected later this month. Mr. Thaksin meanwhile is undergoing what appears to be a striking personal and professional rehabilitation.
This time Mr. Thaksin is working alongside the military and conservatives who overthrew him, joined together against their new common adversary — the Move Forward Party (MFP) and its fiercely outspoken leader Pita Limjaroenrat, a popular, progressive politician who has challenged the power of both the military and the royalist establishment.
Mr. Pita was on his way to become prime minister after winning the biggest share in May’s national parliamentary elections, campaigning to slash the military’s political powers, budget, and lucrative commercial activities, and end the draft. He also wanted to weaken the royal defamation law, which imprisons people for up to 15 years for criticizing the monarchy and which critics have said has been used to stifle politically dissenting voices.
But Mr. Pita’s proposed coalition government could not secure enough support in the government-appointed Senate, and he was relegated to the opposition while Mr. Srettha and Pheu Thai announced a differing government lineup more amenable to the royalist and military conservatives. Mr. Thaksin’s blessing of the arrangement was considered critical.
“Everyone knows that Thaksin has returned to Thailand having a mission to fight politics against the Move Forward Party,” Rangsit University political science lecturer Wanwichit Boonprong said in an interview. The MFP “was viewed by conservatives as a more dangerous threat than Thaksin and Pheu Thai.”
“His return is like receiving a special signal for his Pheu Thai party to take on an important mission, even if he is in prison for criminal cases. If there was a special mission order from Thaksin given to him, Mr. Srettha would most certainly be forced to accept it unconditionally,” Mr. Wanwichit added.
Kasit Piromya, a foreign minister in an anti-Thaksin government from 2008 to 2011, agreed.
“Inside the Pheu Thai Party, I believe Mr. Thaksin and his wife are in control,” Mr. Kasit said in an interview. “They are the owners of the party. Mr. Srettha is only a tool or a puppet.”
How all this will sit with Mr. Pita’s ardent and sizable youthful electoral base is an open question, he added.
“Thaksin and Srettha, and all the conservative elements, now have a formidable force to reckon with, namely, the Move Forward Party and the younger generation who want change,” Mr. Kasit said.
Key role
Mr. Thaksin’s role, if and when he finishes his jail time, will be key, analysts here say.
“Formally, de jure, Srettha is in charge. De facto, it is Thaksin, except for economic policy,” Paul Chambers, Naresuan University lecturer in Southeast Asian affairs, said in an interview. “This was one of the demands that Srettha had, to become a prime ministerial candidate. He wanted to gain control over, and lead, Thai economic policy.”
There were signs the week’s events had been carefully choreographed: When Mr. Thaksin’s private jet arrived in Bangkok on Aug. 22, authorities allowed him to thank hundreds of supporters at the airport, before taking him to Bangkok’s grim Remand Prison.
Hours later, officials said Mr. Thaksin had been transferred across town to the Police General Hospital’s Intermediate Care Unit to treat his heart and lung disease, high blood pressure and a herniated disc. Almost immediately, relatives and lawyers began visiting him at the hospital.
Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam, who is also acting justice minister, told the Associated Press Friday that Mr. Thaksin was not being given special treatment. He insisted that Mr. Thaksin will be treated as a normal convict and will be returned to prison to serve his term once his health issues are cleared up. But Mr. Wissanu will soon be out of his job when the Srettha government is sworn in, the AP noted.
Thailand’s U.S.-trained military has dominated politics in this Buddhist-majority Southeast Asian nation through more than a dozen coups since World War II. Thai politics this century has largely been defined by the clash between the army and Mr. Thaksin, his political family’s dynastic heirs, and their pro-Thaksin “Red Shirt” street supporters.
After ousting Mr. Thaksin in 2006, the military, led by army chief and outgoing Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, in 2014 staged another coup against the government of Mr. Thaksin’s elected sister, former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. Ms. Yingluck remains an international fugitive dodging convictions for her administration’s corruption.
She posted a video tearfully hugging her brother farewell in Singapore when he flew to Bangkok late last month but did not accompany him home.
Since the 2006 putsch, however, Mr. Thaksin has been the man the military loved to hate, frequently demonized after his 2001 landslide election victory as prime minister.
The junta justified its 2006 coup by citing the Thaksin government’s alleged financial corruption, disrespect for the monarchy, and an anti-drug campaign which resulted in 2,500 extrajudicial deaths.
Today, Mr. Thaksin has a new enemy: “the very large and very popular Move Forward party, which detests him now that Pheu Thai made a deal with military parties, and progressives within Pheu Thai itself, who are frustrated also that the deal occurred,” Mr. Chambers said.
In his new role collaborating with the military, royalists, and other conservatives against Mr. Pita’s reform campaigns, Mr. Thaksin will not be as strong as he was during his authoritarian prime ministry.
“He has to share power with the conservative and military establishment,” Mr. Kasit said. “He has to rebuild his power base, as many of his Red Shirt supporters have deserted him or become disillusioned with his compromise with the military establishment.”
The compromise allowed Mr. Srettha to nail down the Senate and House majority that Mr. Pita repeatedly failed to secure for his proposed government. Lawmakers last month voted 482-164, with 81 abstentions, to approve the new government, well above the 376 votes needed.
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