As the NBA universe heads to Las Vegas this week, the Celtics’ offseason is about to switch into high gear. From extensions to free agents to trades, Brad Stevens’ front office has plenty on its plate to resolve when the free agency moratorium ends on July 6 and deals can start being executed.
While the Jaylen Brown extension is the most important piece of business, league and team sources told The Athletic the first domino they expect to fall will be Grant Williams’ restricted free agency. The sources were granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on the record.
Though most of the league’s cap space has dried up at this point, the expectation with Williams has always been that a sign-and-trade or midlevel exception (MLE) would be the likely outcome. Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, New York and Washington are all still in the mix, according to league sources, with Williams eligible to sign an offer sheet on July 6. The Celtics have 24 hours to match once the sheet is signed.
Boston has been seeking a first-round pick in return for Williams, according to league sources, though it’s rare for a sign-and-trade for a role player to yield that significant of a return. Once Williams’ situation is resolved, the Celtics will have a clearer picture of how they can build for the future around Brown’s extension.
Discussions over a designated veteran extension for Brown are expected to pick up steam soon, as the negotiating parties head to Las Vegas Summer League. While several designated rookie extensions have been agreed upon since free agency opened, the Brown contract is more complicated. Sources with knowledge of the discussions told The Athletic that the delay is due to the flurry of free agency activity this past week.
Brown can make 35 percent of the cap as a designated veteran as opposed to just 30 percent for the rookie supermaxes. He’s entering his age-27 season, and there’s no longer the expectation he will significantly improve, so he has to be worth his salary right now.
After signing a below-max deal last time that included some sizable incentives at the time, this new extension will be more complicated than just agreeing on a number. Even if Boston offers the full five-year, $295 million deal, the team will want to build in an incentive structure while Brown’s camp can push for an early termination option (ETO) after Year 3 or a player option in Year 5, as Jayson Tatum received. An ETO would give Brown a chance for another five-year max deal while he’s still in his prime.
Brown currently has achievable incentives like making the All-Star team and progressing deep in the playoffs, but there have been recent high-profile deals like Jordan Poole’s that included bonuses for MVP, Defensive Player of the Year and All-Defensive team nods. Those essentially unattainable incentives at least allowed Poole to get his number close to the max as a point of pride, but Brown is likely beyond putting up appearances.
Derrick White and Grant Williams. (Adam Glanzman / Getty Images)
Even before Williams’ deal comes together, Kristaps Porziņģis’ new extension can help Brown get what he wants. Porziņģis will make $36 million this season, then take a pay cut on his reported two-year, $60 million extension to around $29.8 million for 2024-25 and then $31.2 million in 2025-26. That drop will be crucial for the Celtics trying to navigate the second apron next season and help inform what kind of guaranteed money they can offer Brown or the deal they could match with Williams.
Multiple league sources told The Athletic that they expect the Celtics to consider matching a deal up to the $12.4 million MLE that teams such as Charlotte and Atlanta can offer. But those teams, as well as Dallas, New York and Washington, can work out a sign-and-trade with the Celtics to bring in Williams for a salary Boston wouldn’t match. Williams can’t sign an offer sheet until July 6, so teams have time to get a read on how deep into the teens they can push the Celtics before Boston relents.
Porziņģis signing for below his max extension’s value helps create room under the second apron to pay Williams, but that would be so much total money to commit to a big-man rotation. Unless the Celtics are going to play double big the vast majority of the time, it’s hard to justify without shipping out another big in 2024.
Oshae Brissett’s arrival gives them a low-cost alternative for Williams’ role at the four, as he can crash the glass and guard a few positions. It would be a notable downgrade, but the Celtics will have to sacrifice somewhere in the rotation to survive the new CBA’s dramatic restrictions. Paying four rotation bigs seems like a thing of the past now for everyone in the league.
Boston’s approach in recent years has been to build up a deep rotation around two stars. So, a pivot to a third star in Porziņģis, even if he is making less than the max, means they can’t afford to pay eight starting-caliber players fair market value like they did last season. The new second apron means teams can afford to do that for one, maybe two years before they have to back down. The Celtics could make life easy by salary-dumping Malcolm Brogdon, but they’d then have a huge point-guard problem.
Even after the Brogdon trade to the Clippers fell apart before the draft, when the Celtics sent Marcus Smart to Memphis instead, a potential Los Angeles deal still could be in play. The Clippers have been looking for a new home for Marcus Morris — while Norman Powell has also come up in potential deals, according to league sources — but the Celtics would need a third team to take the player on. The Clippers are reportedly the front-runners to land James Harden, so that could hold up progress on a Brogdon deal.
The Celtics have reportedly registered interest in Damian Lillard now that his trade request is official, but the Blazers star has been strongly linked to Miami. Because Lillard is locked in long-term, he can’t use the threat of leaving in free agency to scare teams off. The Celtics could get into the mix for Lillard, though they don’t have a blue-chip prospect to build a trade around unless they can’t get a deal done with Brown.
Whether it’s dealing Williams or Brogdon, Boston’s priority likely will be bringing in a ballhandler to complement White as the starting point guard. The Celtics agreed to a deal with Raptors backup point guard Dalano Banton, according to The Athletic’s Shams Charania, but he is expected to serve as more of a deep reserve across the backcourt rather than a core part of their offensive plans.
Boston will have more minimum salary signings ahead to fill out the roster, but any addition to the core rotation will have to come with a subtraction. Brown isn’t going anywhere at the moment, so the Celtics have time to figure out everything else before getting across the finish line with their top priority.
(Top photo: Megan Briggs / Getty Images)
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