Summary
-
Avatar 3
‘s chances of beating its predecessors at the box office are uncertain due to multiple delays and a potentially less appealing plot. -
The lack of a technological gimmick and a shorter time gap between
Avatar 3
and its predecessor may hinder its prospects for success. -
The franchise’s downward trend, with
Avatar 2
earning less than the original, could continue with
Avatar 3
unless it can overcome the challenges it faces.
While Avatar: The Way of Water’s box office was staggering, Avatar 3 will have a hard time beating the 2022 movie’s performance with audiences. Avatar 3 is set to arrive in cinemas in December 2025, with the sequel furthering the saga set up in Avatar: The Way of Water and its 2009 predecessor, Avatar. While some critics suspected that the long-awaited sequel might underperform upon release, Avatar: The Way of Water made a phenomenal $2.32 billion at the box office when it finally arrived. While the original Avatar earned even more, with a lifetime gross of $2.92 billion, this was still a huge success for the series.
Despite this, multiple delays toAvatar 3’s release date have since called the sequel’s chances of beating its predecessors into question. It is not all that rare for sequels to outperform original movies, but it is surprising when a franchise’s third outing outdoes both the movies that came before it. Not only that, but Avatar 3’s continuation of Jake Sully’s saga, in what is hinted to maintain a repetitive narrative, could make the movie’s plot less appealing to viewers. Various elements associated with Avatar 3 arriving so soon after Avatar: The Way of Water (compared to the latter’s 13-year delay) and the sequel’s risky storyline make its odds of a historic box office success seem uncertain.
9 The Technological Leap Between Avatar 2 & 3 Isn’t As Big
Avatar 3 Hasn’t Given Technology Time To Change
Avatar was released in late 2009 while Avatar: The Way of Water arrived in December 2022, resulting in a 13-year wait between franchise outings. This gave viewers time to miss the characters of the series while also allowing a significant chunk of time to elapse in-universe. In contrast, Avatar 3‘s immersive story will arrive only three years after Avatar: The Way of Water. This means that the filmmakers don’t have the time to develop cutting-edge new technology for its production, something that was heavily hyped during the first sequel’s promotion. This could prove a considerable impediment to box office success.
8 Avatar 3 Doesn’t Have A Filmmaking “Hook” (Yet)
Avatar 3’s Lack Of A Technological Gimmick Could Hurt Its Prospects
For viewers who didn’t put as much weight on the Na’vi and their story to carry interest, the first Avatar movie had groundbreaking 3D technology that commanded attention even outside of the movie’s plot and characters. Similarly, Avatar: The Way of Water’s underwater filming was spectacularly immersive, with James Cameron and his crew developing new tech and cameras solely to achieve the movie’s underwater sequences. In contrast, Avatar 3 doesn’t have a filmmaking hook that will draw in viewers who are more interested in the franchise’s cinematic spectacle than its narrative.
7 Avatar 2 Already Earned Less Than The First Movie
The Avatar Franchise Could Be On The Decline Already
There is no denying the fact that Avatar: The Way of Water’s box office performance was incredible. However, while the sequel still did massively well and broke all manner of records for the series, it is worth noting that Avatar: The Way of Water didn’t out-gross the original movie. So far, Avatar: The Way of Water‘s box office still trails Avatar‘s gross by approximately $600 million, though the latter has already seen a few theatrical re-releases since its 2009 premiere.
With the sequel bringing in less money than its predecessor, the franchise may have begun a downward trend despite its relative success. If Avatar 3 were to suffer the same drop-off between installments that its predecessor did, the movie would make the comparatively paltry sum of $1.72 billion at the box office. While this would still be an astounding haul for any movie, the box office standard for James Cameron’s hit franchise was set incredibly high in its first outing.
6 The Time Jump Between Avatar 2 & 3 Is Much Smaller
Avatar 3 Can’t Jump Ahead In Time Unlike Its Predecessor
Avatar: The Way of Water was a reintroduction to the world of Pandora set over a decade after the original movie, whereas Avatar 3 needs to be a pretty direct continuation of the sequel’s story. Since the time between the release dates of the two movies is so much shorter, Avatar 3 can’t get away with a huge time jump in-universe like the 2022 sequel. The story gap between the first two movies worked well to provide a fresh arena in Pandora, but Avatar 3 won’t have this enticing luxury. Avatar: The Way of Water also ended on a cliffhanger, meaning viewers would be understandably frustrated if the storyline suddenly leaped years ahead into the future.
5 Avatar 3’s Second Sequel Status Doesn’t Bode Well
Cameron’s History of Threequels Is Bad For Avatar 3
The third outings of Cameron’s earlier franchises, such as the Terminator movies and the Alien series, were seen as major letdowns. As such, Avatar 3 could be less inviting to audiences. Fortunately, Avatar 3 could break Cameron’s curse since the director will return for this sequel, which he has not done for earlier franchises. That said, this might not be enough to stop viewers from feeling like Avatar 3’s threequel status is inherently off-putting.
4 Avatar 3 Is Stuck With Jake Sully
The Avatar Franchise’s Protagonist Is Its Least Interesting Hero
Even though he’s the least engaging character in Avatar‘s Sully family tree, Jake is guaranteed to be a major presence in Avatar 3. Lo’ak, Kiri, and Neytiri are expected to play bigger roles, but Jake’s relatively flat character arc will remain a central focus. Jake’s battles with Quaritch defined the first two movies and, since Cameron has already announced that Stephen Lang’s character will be the main villain of every Avatar sequel, viewers can be sure that Jake’s arguably redundant story plays a major part in Avatar 3.
3 Avatar 3 Has No New Human Villains
Sticking to Existing Villains Could Hurt the Sequel’s Appeal
There will be a few new human and Na’vi characters in Avatar 3, but the news that Avatar and Avatar: The Way of Water’s human villains and Miles Quaritch will return makes it seem like the sequel will mostly rely on existing human antagonists. Bringing back Avatar: The Way of Water’s best villains isn’t a bad idea per se, but failing to add more human villains means that it could soon feel like the Avatar movies are retreading the same water. Seeing the same heroes face off against the same villains repeatedly is not a formula for box office success.
2 Avatar 2’s Box Office Impact Might Be Impossible to Replicate
2022’s Box Office Receipts Were Atypically Generous
From the lengthy wait between the two movies to the broader box office success of 2022’s blockbusters, Avatar: The Way of Water’s impact could have been a one-off. Although 2023 has seen Barbie almost match Top Gun: Maverick’s box office success, the year has not equaled 2022 in terms of box office success more broadly. The five highest-grossing movies of 2023 made a combined $5.1 billion, whereas 2022’s five biggest hits made $6.5 billion between them. This means Avatar 3 may arrive at a time when blockbuster movies simply aren’t as huge as they were immediately post-pandemic.
1 Cameron’s Avatar 3 Plan Could Ruin The Franchise’s Story
Making the Na’vi Villains Might Derail the Avatar Series
Cameron told 20 Minutes, “I want to reveal the Na’vi from another angle because I have only shown their good sides. In the early films, there are very negative human examples and very positive Na’vi examples. In ‘Avatar 3,’ we’ll do the reverse.” However, this introduction of villainous Na’vi may be a terrible idea. Turning the Na’vi into antagonists and proving that the resource-plundering humans are actually not so bad could lead Avatar 3 to abandon the appealing, impactful story of Avatar: The Way of Water for something vague and less effective. If the change proves to be too divisive, it’s unlikely that Avatar 3 will be able to sell as many box office tickets as its predecessor.
Source: 20 Minutes
-
Avatar 3
- Release Date:
- 2025-12-19
- Director:
- James Cameron
- Cast:
- Zoe Saldana, Sigourney Weaver, Sam Worthington, Stephen Lang
- Genres:
- Sci-Fi
- Writers:
- Josh Friedman, James Cameron
- Summary:
- Avatar 3 is the third entry in James Cameron’s five-movie franchise set in the fictional world of Pandora. Following Jake Sully and Neytiri’s first encounter in 2009’s Avatar and Colonel Miles Quaritch’s retaliation in 2022’s The Way of Water, Avatar 3 sees the Na’vi heroes come across a fire Na’vi tribe known as the Ash People.
- Studio(s):
- 20th Century
- Distributor(s):
- 20th Century
- prequel(s):
- Avatar, Avatar: The Way of Water
- Franchise(s):
- Avatar
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