Polymarket investors confident of spot Bitcoin ETF nod by Jan. 15

Traders taking bets on the platform predict a 90% chance the SEC will approve spot Bitcoin ETFs by mid-January, while the minority is hedging against the converse outcome.

Shares of a “Bitcoin ETF approved by Jan 15” contract on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction venue, traded for 90 cents as speculation for a forthcoming decision from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) dominated market sentiment. 

At press time, the contract had attracted $441,315 worth of “YES” bets, with just 10% of traders choosing “NO”. These investors also admitted their opposing choice was a means to hedge their bets and turn a profit should the SEC delay beyond Jan. 15.

I don’t doubt the inevitability of a Bitcoin ETF, I doubt the SEC’s ability to work fast enough to say yes by Jan. 15.

Polymarket trader

spot Bitcoin ETF
Bettors bid on an SEC decision on spot BTC ETFs by Jan. 15 | Source: Polymarket

Reuters reported that the SEC could announce approvals as early as Jan. 3 for the 14 issuers to list their products in the coming weeks. However, Fox journalist Eleanor Terrett said this is highly unlikely due to ongoing reviews of updated S-1 filings from firms like Hashdex and VanEck.

Although no one knows when the SEC will decide on spot Bitcoin ETFs, experts and crypto proponents fancy the chances of a Jan. 10 outcome. This date coincides with the deadline for a joint submitted by ARK 21Shares.

Cathie Wood, Ark Invest CEO, also foresees a decision by this date. Wood believes an approval would endorse Bitcoin (BTC) and cryptocurrencies through Wall Street, a sentiment shared by MicroStrategy founder and BTC maxi Michael Saylor.

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